Hala,
🎃 When an Ohio cop tried to stop a runaway giant pumpkin, it rolled right over him, leaving him wrapped up like Halloween leftovers!(1) Thankfully, no officers (or pumpkins) were squashed. 🍂🚓
amana’s Take
- GBP hit a speed bump, with GBP/USD slipping to around 1.2890, its lowest since mid-August, as early Friday trading digested the UK’s Autumn Budget Forecast. The budget’s £40 billion tax hike aims to tame public finances but might box in the Bank of England on rate cuts due to its inflationary pressures.
- With new budget numbers pushing inflation expectations higher, the Bank of England’s flexibility for rate cuts could be on thin ice. A £40 billion boost in tax receipts is no small change — and neither is the balancing act the BOE might face.
- Across the pond, US core PCE inflation ticked up 2.7% in September, just enough to stoke rate-cut bets. All eyes now turn to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, where 113,000 new jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate could set the stage for rate trims in November and December.
Stock Market Update
📉↘️ U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday as underwhelming reports from tech giants took the wind out of investors. The S&P 500 shed 1.86% to 5,705.45, the Nasdaq 100 slid 2.44% to 19,890.42, while the Dow fell 0.9% to 41,763.46.(2) More reports are coming and Wall Street’s ready for a plot twist! 🧐🎁
📊📶 Meanwhile, Gulf played seesaw, buoyed by ceasefire hopes between Israel and Hezbollah. Abu Dhabi added 0.4% to 9,328, while Dubai dipped 0.3% to 4,591.(3) ⬆️⬇️
✂️💰 Fed Prepares to Roll Out the Rate-Cutting Scissors!
The Federal Reserve is sharpening its scissors, ready to give interest rates a trim next week with another snip likely in December (70% chance). (1) With inflation cooling down to a mild 2.1% — just above the Fed’s 2% target — and wage growth slowing to its lowest pace in three years, the Fed seems set on easing the burden for the labor market. But, like a hesitant barber, it’s cautiously eyeing some pesky price pressures that could make the December haircut a little trickier. ✂️💼
📉🔍 Trimmed Expectations:
- Soft Inflation: Down to 2.1%, keeping Fed’s target just a whisker away.
- Wage Cut: Employment costs saw their smallest rise in over three years.
- Election Uncertainty: The Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election and possible policy shifts may impact next year’s rate forecasts.
- Core Inflation: Rising underlying price pressures may call for a December pause.
- Rate Cuts: Futures are betting on a 94% chance of a cut next week. 💸✂️
📊🗳️ Election Cuts or Caution?
As November brings election drama, the Fed is keeping its scissors on standby for December. A tight labor market, rising tariffs, and potential tax cuts could cause wage pressures to spike again. With all eyes on the Fed’s next move, it’s clear they’re ready to cut…but only if the numbers stay in line. 💼✂️
Closer to Home
- 🤖 Google just launched its biggest A.I. push in MENA — the A.I. Opportunity Initiative — pledging $15M to fund organizations, boost A.I. skills, and bring A.I. tools across the region.(5) Google’s finally putting some serious cash where its code is! 💰
- 🤝 Abu Dhabi’s Realize and Neovision launched the ‘Realize T-BILLS Fund’ to buy U.S. Treasury ETFs from BlackRock and State Street, tokenizing them for blockchain trading.(6) Looks like Treasury bills are getting a digital makeover! 🤑
- 🚀 Meanwhile, UAE-based Alpha Dhabi’s profits skyrocketed 83% YoY to AED 7.5B ($2.04B) in Q3 2024, powered by gains in industrial, real estate, and construction segments.(7) Alpha Dhabi’s on a roll! 💸
What Else Is Trending
- 🛍️ Amazon beat Q3 expectations with $1.43 EPS (vs. $1.14 forecast) and $158.88B (vs $157.2B expected) in revenue, thanks to strong growth in cloud and ads. Stock popped 5% in after-hours — seems clouds really do have silver linings!(8) 📈
- 👩💻 Intel shares rose 7% after hours on Thursday as Q3 earnings reached 17 cents per share (beating a 2-cent loss forecast) and revenue topped $13.28B — talk about a chipper surprise!(9) 🎉
- 🛢️ Meanwhile, oil prices got a lift, fueled by strong U.S. demand hopes and a potential OPEC+ pause. Brent rose 0.84% to $73.16 and WTI climbed 0.95% to $69.26.(10) ⛽
💬Quote of the Day
“We believe the Fed will pause any rate cuts in December amid fears about a reacceleration of inflation,” Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management
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Sources: (1) ABC News, (2) (8) (9) CNBC, (3) (4) (10) Reuters, (5) (6) (7) Zawya
