🌧️🚀 China’s Rate Cuts: What Analysts Are Saying

amana
4 min readSep 24, 2024

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Hala,

Mozart’s 2024 release just dropped! 🎶📜 A never-before-heard string trio from the 1760s was found in a German library.(1) 📚🇩🇪 It’s 12 minutes of pure classical heat, with 7 mini movements that’ll have you saying Beyoncé, who? 🎻🔥

amana’s take

  • Australia Holds Rates at 4.35% Amid Inflation: Australia’s central bank held its interest rate at 4.35% for the seventh straight meeting, maintaining its highest level in 12 years due to persistent inflation. The RBA stressed the need for restrictive policy until inflation returns to the target range, despite political pressure for change. The Australian Dollar surged, hitting 0.6860 against the USD. Trade ADAUSD now.
  • Gold Prices Steady Amid Fed Signals and Geopolitical Tensions:Gold prices, just below the record high of $2,635, remain strong amid dovish Fed signals and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East. Expectations for Chinese economic stimulus also support gold’s safe-haven appeal.
  • Ethereum Outperforms After Fed Rate Cut:Ethereum surged 16%, outperforming Bitcoin and Solana, following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut. Ethereum broke the $2,595 resistance and aims for $2,817, with rising open interest, signaling both investor confidence and potential volatility.

Stock Market Update

📈🚀 Wall Street kicked off Monday still buzzing from the Fed’s rate cut! The S&P 500 inched up 0.28% to 5,718.57, while the Dow added 0.15% to 42,124.65., both hitting fresh records. The Nasdaq 100 joined the party, rising 0.31% to 19,852.20.(2) Guess the bulls aren’t ready to leave the party just yet! ↗️🥳

📊📶 Meanwhile, Gulf markets played seesaw as regional tensions simmered. Abu Dhabi gained 0.2% to 9,454, while Dubai slipped 0.1% to 4,434.(3) ⬆️⬇️

🎢🌊 China Opens the Liquidity Floodgates, but Is It Enough?

China’s central bank just opened the floodgates, hoping to flood the economy with much-needed liquidity, but it feels like they’re trying to fill a reservoir with just a trickle. With a 50 basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) announced and interest rate reductions, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is making waves.(4) But while markets are feeling a flow of optimism, analysts are cautious — without stronger policies, this move might just fizzle out like a tiny splash in a big pond. 🌧️📉

🔑💡 Key Takes from the Experts:

  • “Equities rallied, but stronger policies are still needed for sustained momentum,” remarked Khoon Goh, ANZ.
  • “With an elevated real interest rate, poor sentiment and no rebound in the property market, China needs a lower-rate environment to boost confidence,” pointed out Gary Ng, Natixis.
  • “Today’s measures are a step in the right direction, but a fiscal policy push could reignite momentum in Q4,” said Lynn Song, ING.

🚀📈 Markets Ride the Wave

Chinese stocks surged as investors latched onto this new flow of liquidity. The Shanghai Composite Index gained about 1%, and bond markets rallied like surfers catching the perfect wave. But the thrill might be short-lived — without stronger fiscal backing and a crackdown on fraud, these rate cuts could be like paddling against the current. Investors are watching closely, hoping the PBOC will keep the floodgates open long enough for a real turnaround. 🌊💼

Closer to Home

  • 💰 ADNOC Distribution’s making it rain with a $350M interim dividend for H1 2024, and a juicy AED 10.285 fils per share. Profits are up, growth is steady, and they’re eyeing EV charging and digital expansion.(5) Heads up, shareholders! 🤑
  • 💸 Egypt is eyeing a $3B Eurobond sale in FY 2024/2025, its first since 2021. Finance Minister Kouchouk teased the plan to London investors, possibly including Sukuk.(6) Egypt’s back in the bond market! 📈
  • 💵 Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production (OQEP) is going public, aiming for OMR 780M ($2.03B) with shares priced at 370–390 Omani baisas. Trading on the Muscat Stock Exchange (MSX) starts October 28!(7) #IPOAlert! 🤩

What Else Is Trending

  • 🏦 Crypto giant Coinbase clashed with the SEC in court, with the crypto giant pushing for clearer rules on digital assets. The SEC says existing regulations are enough, but Coinbase wants that overturned.(8) The plot thickens! 👀
  • 🛢️ Meanwhile, oil prices lost some steam on Monday, dragged down by sluggish eurozone business activity and a weak Chinese economy. Brent dropped 0.8% to $73.90, while WTI fell 0.9% to $70.37.(9) ⛽

💬Quote of the Day

“The move probably comes a bit too late, but it is better late than never.” — Gary Ng, Senior Economist, Natixis

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Sources: (1) The Guardian, (2) (9) CNBC, (3) (4) (8) Reuters, (5) (6) (7) Zawya

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amana

The leading neobroker in the Middle East 🌍 Your go-to app for all things trading & investing: from stocks to cryptos. 🚀 📲 https://get.amana.app/8nHr/Medium