Hala,
After months on the run, Memphis murder suspect Deario Wilkerson made a crashing return — straight through the ceiling of the house he was hiding in!(1) 😳🚨 U.S. Marshals didn’t even have to knock; he dropped in uninvited. Guess gravity’s on the goodside! 😅 #Oops #NotSoSneaky
amana’s Take
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is feeling the heat, hovering around 100.80 as markets gear up for a potential Fed rate cut. With a 63% chance of a 50-basis-point cut on the table, traders are bracing for impact.
- Stronger-than-expected retail sales data — up 0.1% in August — offered a momentary lift for the greenback. But even with the positive data, caution still reigns as markets await the Fed’s next move.
- The expected rate cut signals the Fed’s delicate dance between boosting economic growth and tightening monetary policy. Investors are eyeing the broader market implications, trying to gauge just how this will play out.
Stock Market Update
📈📉 US stocks hopped on a financial seesaw today, holding their breath for the Fed’s rate cut call. The S&P 500 gained 0.03% to 5,634.58 after teasing an all-time high of 5,670.81. The Dow dipped 0.04% to 41,606.18 but still managed to sneak in a record mid-session, and the Nasdaq 100 added a modest 0.05% to close at 19,432.40.(2) Popcorn’s out — Wall Street’s watching the Fed! 🎢🛼
↗️↘️ Even Gulf markets couldn’t resist the Fed’s tug-of-war. Abu Dhabi rose 0.4% to 9,428, while Dubai was flat at 4,395.(3) ⬆️⬇️
🎂🍰 Fed Cuts a Slice: Quarter-Point Rate Drop in the Oven
The Fed’s rate cut decision-making process is like watching a soufflé rise — you’re cautiously optimistic, but one wrong move and it could deflate. With 84% of respondents predicting a quarter-point cut, and just 16% holding out for a half-point, the Fed is trying to bake the perfect monetary policy cake.(4) But some are already whispering about potential cracks in the crust, hinting at lingering inflation concerns. 🍳🥄
🍒📉 Key Ingredients:
- Rate Cut: 84% say a quarter-point, while 16% bet on a half-point.
- Funds Rate Forecast: 4.6% by end of 2024, dropping to 3.7% by 2025.
- Recession Chances: Ticking up to 36%, but still far from half-baked.
- Market Sentiment: Futures markets show a stronger expectation for a bigger cut, contrasting with economists’ predictions.
🍪🧁 Soft Landing or Soggy Bottom?
Survey respondents are confident that this rate cut will come just in time to preserve the economy’s delicate soufflé, with 74% expecting a soft landing. But with recession fears creeping back up, this dessert could still collapse under the weight of uncertainty. After all, nobody likes a soggy bottom! One analyst even called it a “mid-cycle correction” — more like a mid-cycle snack break before the next course. 🍽️🥧
Closer to Home
- 🤝 Microsoft and G42 are rolling out two new AI centers in Abu Dhabi. One’s all about responsible AI; the other, Microsoft’s first “AI for Good Research Lab,” is set to tackle big social challenges.(5) UAE’s AI game is levelling up! 🚀
- 📰 2024’s looking up for the GCC, though the Gaza conflict casts a shadow. PwC reports solid Q2 non-oil growth, with Saudi GDP edging up.(6) With a Fed rate cut looming, non-oil sectors are poised for more growth! 💪
- 💸 Meanwhile, Oman’s rolling out $430M in investment opportunities, with tax cuts to sweeten the deal. The aim? Diversify the economy, create jobs, and power up Vision 2040.(7) 🤑
What Else Is Trending
- 💹 Asia-Pacific markets were a mixed bag Wednesday as investors awaited the Fed’s rate call. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.49%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed flat.(8) All eyes on the Fed! 📉
- 🛢️ Meanwhile, oil prices took a lift as the Fed hinted at a rate cut and Gulf of Mexico production hit the snooze button. Brent rose 1.31% to $73.70 per barrel, while WTI climbed 1.57% to $71.19.(9) ⛽
- 🎇 Lastly, gold prices lost its shine as the dollar bulked up and yields tightened, with the Fed’s verdict looming. Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $2,569.43.(10) ✨
💬Quote of the Day
“The economy is growing faster than expected in 2024, and the Fed has time to lower rates at a measured pace.” — Michael Englund, Action Economics
Learn more: https://amana.app/interest
Sources:(1) NPR, (2) (4) (8) (9) (10) CNBC, (3) Reuters, (5) Gulf News, (6) Khaleej Times, (7) Zawya
